Unvaccinated account for most virus deaths

Nearly all covid-19 deaths in the U.S. now are people who weren’t vaccinated, a demonstration of how effective the shots have been and an indication that deaths per day — now down to fewer than 300 — could be practically zero if everyone eligible got the vaccine.

An Associated Press analysis of available government data from May shows that “breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 hospitalizations. That’s about 0.1%.

And only about 150 of the more than 18,000 covid-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people. That translates to about 0.8%, or five deaths per day on average.

The AP analyzed figures

provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC itself has not estimated what percentage of hospitalizations and deaths are in fully vaccinated people, citing limitations in the data.

Among them: Only about 45 states report breakthrough infections, and some are more aggressive than others in looking for such cases. So the data probably understates such infections, CDC officials said.

Still, the overall trend that emerges from the data echoes what many health care authorities are seeing around the country and what top experts are saying.

Earlier this month, Andy Slavitt, a former adviser to the Biden administration on covid-19, suggested that 98% to 99% of the Americans dying of the coronavirus are unvaccinated.

And CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Tuesday that the vaccine is so effective that “nearly every death, especially among adults, due to covid-19, is, at this point, entirely preventable.” She called such deaths “particularly tragic.”

Deaths in the U.S. have plummeted from a peak of more than 3,400 a day on average in mid-January, one month into the vaccination drive.

About 63% of all vaccine-eligible Americans — everyone 12 and older — have received at least one dose, and 53% are fully vaccinated, according to the CDC. While vaccines remain scarce in much of the world, the U.S. supply is so abundant and demand has slumped so dramatically that shots sit unused.

Ross Bagne, a 68-yearold small-business owner in Cheyenne, Wyo., was eligible for the vaccine in early February but didn’t get it. He died June 4, infected and unvaccinated, after spending more than three weeks in the hospital, his lungs filling with fluid. He was unable to swallow because of a stroke.

“He never went out, so he didn’t think he would catch it,” said his grieving sister, Karen McKnight. She wondered: “Why take the risk of not getting vaccinated?”

The preventable deaths will continue, experts predict, with unvaccinated pockets of the nation experiencing outbreaks in the fall and winter. Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle, said modeling suggests that the nation will hit 1,000 deaths per day again next year.

In Arkansas, which has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the nation, with only about 33% of the population fully protected, cases, hospitalizations and deaths are rising.

“It is sad to see someone go to the hospital or die when it can be prevented,” Gov. Asa Hutchinson tweeted as he urged people to get shots.

In Seattle’s King County, the public health department found only three deaths during a recent 60-day period in people who were fully vaccinated. The rest, some 95% of 62 deaths, had had no vaccine or just one shot.

“Those are all somebody’s parents, grandparents, siblings and friends,” said Dr. Mark Del Beccaro, who helps lead a vaccination outreach program in King County. “It’s still a lot of deaths, and they’re preventable deaths.”

In the St. Louis area, more than 90% of patients hospitalized with covid-19 have not been vaccinated, said Dr. Alex Garza, a hospital administrator who directs a metropolitan-area task force on the outbreak.

“The majority of them express some regret for not being vaccinated,” Garza said. “That’s a pretty common refrain that we’re hearing from patients with covid.”

The stories of unvaccinated people dying may convince some people that they should get the shots, but young adults — the group least likely to be vaccinated — may be motivated more by a desire to protect their loved ones, said David Michaels, an epidemiologist at George Washington University’s school of public health in the nation’s capital.

Others need paid time off to get the shots and deal with any side effects, Michaels said.

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration this month began requiring health care employers, including hospitals and nursing homes, to provide such time off. But Michaels, who headed OSHA under President Barack Obama, said the agency should have gone further and applied the rule to meat and poultry plants and other food operations, as well as other places with workers at risk.

Bagne, who lived alone, ran a business helping people incorporate their companies in Wyoming for the tax advantages. He was winding down the business, planning to retire, when he got sick, emailing his sister in April about an illness that had left him dizzy and disoriented.

“Whatever it was. That bug took a LOT out of me,” he wrote.

As his health deteriorated, a neighbor finally persuaded him to go to the hospital.

“Why was the messaging in his state so unclear that he didn’t understand the importance of the vaccine? He was a very bright guy,” his sister said. “I wish he’d gotten the vaccine, and I’m sad he didn’t understand how it could prevent him from getting covid.”

SHORT OF GOAL

With the July Fourth approaching, the White House acknowledged this week that President Joe Biden will fall short of his 70% vaccination goal. The missed milestone is notable in a White House that has been organized around a strategy of underpromising and overdelivering for the American public.

White House officials, while acknowledging that they are set to fall short, insist they’re unconcerned. “We don’t see it exactly like something went wrong,” press secretary Jen Psaki said this week, stressing that Americans are better off than they were when Biden announced the goal.

As of Wednesday, 65.6% of Americans 18 and older had received at least one shot, according to the CDC. The figure is expected to be above 67% by July 4.

A half-dozen officials involved in the vaccination campaign, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the missed target candidly, pointed to a combination of factors, including the lessened sense of urgency that followed early success in the vaccination campaign; a decision to reach for a higher goal; and unexpectedly strong recalcitrance among some Americans.

Nonetheless, the White House says it’s not letting up on its efforts. Biden flew to Raleigh, N.C., on Thursday to urge people to roll up their sleeves as part of a nationwide month of action to drive up the vaccination rate before the holiday. The White House is rolling out increasingly localized programs to encourage specific communities to get vaccinated.

“The best way to protect yourself against the virus and its variants is to be fully vaccinated,” Biden said after touring a mobile vaccination unit, and meeting with frontline workers and volunteers. “It works. It’s free. It’s safe. It’s easy.”

The White House always expected a drop-off in vaccination rates, but not as sharp as has proved to be the case. The scale of American reluctance to get vaccinated remains a source of global curiosity, particularly as many nations are still scrambling for doses to protect their most vulnerable populations.

When the 70% goal was first announced, more than 800,000 Americans on average were getting their first vaccine doses each day — down from a high of nearly 2 million per day in early April. Now that figure is below 300,000.

Paradoxically, officials believe the strong response to the early vaccination campaign has served to reduce motivation to get shots. One of the most potent motivators was the high rate of covid-19 cases and deaths. Now that those figures have dropped to levels not seen since the onset of the pandemic, officials say it’s become harder to convince Americans of the urgency — particularly for younger populations that already knew they were at low risk of serious complications from the virus.

Separately, two officials involved in the crafting of the 70% goal said officials knew 65% would have been a safer bet, but the White House wanted to reach for a figure closer to experts’ projections of what would be needed for herd immunity to bring down cases and deaths. Aiming for the higher target, the officials said, was seen as adding to the urgency of the campaign and probably increased the vaccination rate above where it would have been with a more modest goal.

Other officials said the White House, which has always cast the vaccination campaign as “hard,” nevertheless failed to grasp the resistance of some Americans.

“The hesitation among younger Americans and among Trump voters has been too hard to overcome,” said GOP pollster Frank Luntz, who has worked with the White House and outside groups to promote vaccinations. “They think they are making a statement by refusing to be vaccinated. For Trump voters, it’s a political statement. For younger adults, it’s about telling the world that they are immune.”

Of the White House, Luntz said, “I think they did as good a job as they could have done.”

EVICTIONS BAN

The Biden administration Thursday extended the nationwide ban on evictions for a month to help millions of tenants unable to make rent payments during the pandemic.

The CDC extended the policy from June 30 until July 31, but said “this is intended to be the final extension of the moratorium.”

An administration official said the last month would be used for an “all hands on deck” multiagency campaign to prevent a wave of evictions. One of the reasons the moratorium was put in place was to prevent further spread of covid-19 by people put out on the streets and into shelters.

By the end of March, 6.4 million American households were behind on their rent, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

As of June 7, roughly 3.2 million people in the U.S. said they faced eviction in the next two months, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey.

SHOTS REQUIRED

San Francisco said Wednesday that it would require all 35,000 of its employees to be vaccinated or risk losing their jobs, making it one of the largest U.S. municipalities to impose such a mandate.

The requirement will take effect once a covid vaccine receives full authorization from the Food and Drug Administration. The vaccines are currently being used in the United States under emergency authorizations.

City officials said the requirement would promote safety in municipal workplaces and among the general public, given that police officers, firefighters, building inspectors and other city workers come into regular contact with members of the community.

“With those two things in mind — the safety of our employees and the safety of the public we serve — we made this decision,” said Carol Isen, San Francisco’s director of human resources. “We believe this step is a simple one to take. It’s safe, it’s very effective, and it’s going to guarantee the safety of all.”

San Francisco has one of the highest vaccination rates of any major U.S. city, with 80% of residents 12 and older having received at least one dose and 70% fully vaccinated, Mayor London Breed said this month. Isen said informal surveys of city workers — many of whom live in other municipalities where vaccination rates are lower — suggested that at least 60% were fully vaccinated.

Under the policy starting Monday, city employees will be required to show proof of their vaccination status within 30 days. Officials said they would redouble efforts to get shots to those who haven’t had them, while allowing workers to request exemptions on medical or religious grounds.