Retailers divided on impact of early holiday sales

Retailers are saying that strong turnout for the numerous pre-Black Friday promotions offered online and in stores this year proves that shopping patterns have changed.

But it could also be the other way around, with early sales events encouraging consumers to start their Christmas shopping earlier than usual — a sort of chicken-or-the-egg conundrum.

“Retailers have adapted and enticed customers with a number of incentives throughout November,” said Matthew Shay, the National Retail Federation’s president and chief executive.

“Over the last few years, consumers have shifted their holiday shopping plans to start earlier in the

season,” Shay said.

However, Carol Spieckerman, retail consultant and president of Spieckerman Retail, said Wednesday that the early promotional activity “absolutely encouraged early shopping.”

“Retailers aren’t sitting passively by, waiting to see what shoppers will do,” Spieckerman said. “They have actively motivated shoppers to hit the aisles early.”

These factors result in a longer Christmas shopping season, Spieckerman said. But easing the last-minute flurry of shopping doesn’t necessarily translate into lower sales figures, she said.

“In fact, we may yet set a record or at least book impressive numbers given all of this year’s distractions,” Spieckerman said.

The National Retail Federation released the results of its annual Christmas shopping survey, conducted in partnership with Prosper Insights & Analytics, on Tuesday.

Of survey respondents, 84% said they had already started their Christmas shopping and had completed about half of their purchases.

Also, 49% said they took advantage of early Christmas deals and discounts many retailers offered as early as October and throughout November.

Walmart Inc., which doesn’t share specifics about its Christmas holiday sales, said in a statement Wednesday that millions of customers shopped the three online and in-store Black Friday sale events it held throughout November.

The Bentonville-based retailer said popular items included electronics such as gaming consoles, wireless headphones and televisions. Home appliances, toys and winter weather apparel also sold well, the company said.

Nearly 180 million Americans shopped in the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday this year, more than the National Retail Federation had expected but fewer than in the past two years.

The survey found that 179.8 million shoppers made both in-store and online purchases over the five-day period. That exceeded the group’s expectations by more than 21 million.

But in the same period in 2020, 186.4 million shoppers took advantage of Christmas discounts online and in stores.

And in the pre-pandemic 2019 Christmas shopping season, 189.6 million consumers shopped over the Black Friday weekend.

This year, shoppers spent an average of $301.27 on holiday-related items such as gifts, decor, apparel and toys over the Black Friday weekend, according to the National Retail Federation survey.

This is down slightly from $311.75 spent during that time in 2020.

As in previous years, most of those amounts are spent on gift items. This year, that worked out to be $215.40.

The National Retail Federation, which defines the Christmas shopping season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, said in its October forecast that sales this year will grow between 8.5% and 10.5% over 2020. That equates to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion.

The survey of 5,759 consumers was conducted Nov. 24-29, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points.