Arkansas Online

Are we becoming a failed state?

JEFF NASH Jeff Nash is a retired sociologist who lives in Fayetteville.

One commonality between progressive and conservative thinking is that our country has seen better days.

Progressives point to the decades after World War II when education was affordable, taxes on the rich were reducing the war debt, and wages rose for both hourly workers and salaried employees. Conservatives harken to the 1980s when neoliberal economic policies stressed deregulation intended to lift constraints they believed were holding back the liberating potential of capitalism.

A reconciliation of polarized ideologies seems unattainable in light of the current spectacles that pass as political discourse, a contentious and some say dysfunctional Congress, and the growing disenchantment of public opinion with the state of the nation.

A Gallup poll summarizing trends of the last year reports that only small businesses and the military have a majority of respondents saying they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in them (68 percent and 64 percent, respectively).

Confidence in a long list of institutions—the presidency, medical systems, schools, the Supreme Court— continues to trend downward; only 7 percent of respondents express confidence in Congress.

Is America becoming a failed state, whose political or economic system has become so ineffective that the government is no longer in control? Obviously we are not like Yemen, Somalia or Syria. But according to the 2022 Fragility Index, our cohort includes Spain, Italy, Chile and Argentina; not Canada, northern European nations, or New Zealand.

The Fragility Index (fundforpeace.org), measures 17 aspects of fragility such as national cohesion, polarized elites, uneven development, economic stability, human rights, brain drain, state legitimacy, population pressures, unresolved issues that cut across all segments of the nation and others.

The index varies from zero, least fragile, to 120, most fragile. Finland, Norway, and Denmark have scores in the teens. Canada’s score is 20. The U.S. ranks 140th among 179 nations with a score of 46.6; 39 nations are more stable.

The U.S. is also trending toward more fragility. Over a 10-year period the index has increased by 11.8 points, meaning the country is less able to respond to problems and complexities of governing when compared to other nations.

No measure of a phenomena as complex as how well a sovereign state functions can be taken as the standard. But a sense that something is amiss is widespread among Americans. Recently an Associated Press poll reported that 85 percent of Americans agree our country is on the wrong track. Which track is wrong is a matter of contention.

Other objective indicators also point to increased fragility: Average household income has steadily risen for white and non-Hispanic families, but remains flat for Black and Hispanic families.

The Gini index, a widely respected and frequently used measure of wealth inequality, has dramatically increased over the last

30 years. Relative to our economy’s size, we spend more money on health care than any other nation. We emit 18.54 tons of CO2 per capita (higher than China and India). And we are the world leader in municipal waste, more than China (Statista, 2019).

Another approach to assessing fragility is to examine military campaigns. While the U.S. has fought 11 declared wars, we have been involved in hundreds of armed conflicts, sometimes called presidential wars.

Our contemporary military missions have been expensive and frustrating. The Korean War was a stalemate: South Korea has flourished (a FI of 32.7, more stable than the U.S.) and North Korea has not (FI of 89.1).

“Peace with honor,” President Nixon’s term for our retreat from Vietnam, allowed that country to become a player in the global economy. As a Vietnam-era veteran, seeing the label “Made in Vietnam” on my shirt is still jarring. Vietnam’s FI is 60.9, the 64th most fragile.

Our “liberation” of Iraq left that country with a FI of 93.8, the 23rd most fragile among 179 nations. And our 10 years in Afghanistan, along with 10 years of Russian occupation, made that country the eighth most fragile, with a score of 105.9.

The 20th century and first two decades of the 21st have brought unprecedented change, mostly driven by technology and economic forces that spawned conflict and sometimes cooperation among nation states. New states, often formed in the aftermath of colonial rule, struggle to maintain their very existence, and established nations have had to cope with changed international landscapes and worldwide economic realities.

Causes of failure include military conquest or occupation, economic over-reach (debt, inflation), competition from other sovereign states or currencies, and stresses and strains between ideals and realities (corruption and evasion of norms).

Increasing governmental fragility may also be playing a role in reversing a century-long trend towards the establishment of electoral or democratic governments. In 1900, 3 percent of nations were electoral or democratic; in 2000, it was 53 percent, and that trend portended an age of representative governments.

In the last 20 years, there has been a precipitous decline to only 29 percent of the world’s nations being electoral or democratic (Statista 2022).

Our U.S. fragility ranking reflects the consequences of our domestic and foreign policies and practices. That nations change and become weaker should not surprise us.

But if we wish to lead in world affairs, we should wake up to what is happening to us as a sovereign state. Our leaders should become familiar with the Fragility Index, and focus on making us a more stable nation.

Perspective

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2023-01-29T08:00:00.0000000Z

2023-01-29T08:00:00.0000000Z

https://edition.arkansasonline.com/article/284468577790512

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